Jim Roger came to Taiwan in June, and offered his professional advice on how to run the country's economy for President Ma Ying-jeou. Basically what he said can be summed up in two sentences: the future is right here with China and Taiwan, and the surge in commodities prices is simply not going to stop for the next decade.
What? Did I hear him right? In 10 years? If the steep rise of crude oil, wheat, corn, and other raw materials over the past few years will not stop until 2018, how many people in the third world and poor people in the developed world are going to survive?
Well, here are some questions that his unethical logic of investment failed to take into account:
1. Since the current price levels of commodities are already pushing people to the limit, does Rogers really believe that prices are sustainable? What would happen if people decided not to take it any more? What if countries start to ban speculative trading? What if poor people start to revolt? What if the fight for energy and food trigger the Third World War?
2. Rogers is very bearish on tech stocks, but very confident that no other alternative energy is going to replace petrochemical fuels. Hmm. Don't ever underestimate human-beings' potential in finding ways and means to make lives easier when prices are artificial manipulated. What if people decide to do work at home and transmit their projects over the Internet?
Rogers is betting on commodities. But did he have the starving people in his mind when driving up prices with his funds? If you have put your money in funds targetting on commodities, think twice. You might be murdering people who cannot afford the food without knowing it.
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