Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts

Thursday, April 30, 2015

尼泊爾與任何地震帶國家可參考的經驗-智利如何從大地震後 創造經濟復甦奇蹟?


與日前才剛受地震重創的尼泊爾一樣,位於南美洲的智利,在2010年2月27日這天,在8.8級淺層強震的衝擊下,遭受到重大損失,相當於18~20%的國內生產總值(GDP)。這不是一次普通的地震,是人類史上第六大地震,使整個智利和地球軸心的位置都改變了。

更糟糕的是,當時發生在智利剛換新政府之後的政權交接過渡時期,官員完全沒有任何經驗,在這種情況下,很多國家恐怕將陷入失序和紊亂,需要多年才能恢復。

但智利卻在比預期還短的時間裡,達到了很多人都覺得不可能做到的經濟復甦。智利創造了不可思議的重建效率:雖然該國有3分之1的學校在地震中被夷為平地或成為危樓而不堪使用,災後6週,智利為數300多萬的學童便恢復上學,短短2年內,有25萬戶倒塌的房屋就完成重建。這當中有的是政府負責重建,有的則是民間進行的。

賓州大學華頓商學院危機管理與決策過程中心的兩位學者將智利作為案例,進行深入的研究,探討為何該國政府能有如此高效率的危機處理與災後重建行動。他們歸納出幾個特點:

一、 剛選出的總統Sebastian Pinera過去沒有從政經驗,但曾擔任經濟教授,也有豐富的從商歷練。最重要的是,他下定決心要在最短時間讓學生恢復學業,以及盡快進行災後重建,他也有能力號召全國國民與他一起朝這目標挺進。

二、 智利處於地震帶,經歷過很多次強烈地震,因此他們已經發展出一整套的規範,知道在地震發生時,需要立即採取哪些緊急措施,讓總統不用有任何顧慮,直接去做需要的決策,來達成目標。

三、 地震是在新總統贏得大選後的兩週後發生,因此當時是在政權的交接過渡期中,即將卸任的女總統Michelle Bachelet與其內閣和新總統Sebastian Pinera盡釋前嫌,合作無間,共同為災後重建而努力。

四、 即便面臨如此重大變故,Sebastian Pinera堅持要兌現大選時的政見:提振智利經濟,承諾要創造100~200萬新就業機會,至少要讓智利經濟年增率達6%。根據世界銀行數據顯示,2010年當年,智利的經濟成長雖然沒有達到設定的6%目標,也有5.8%。

Sebastian Pinera
對之前從未有從政經驗的內閣表示,要優先重建學校、醫院,盡快讓倒塌的屋舍恢復原貌,並要讓全國有更好的基礎建設與地震準備措施。

而以前是學者的財政部長也與他一起通力合作,讓國家即便需要大筆財政支出進行重建,卻嚴控預算,不讓債留子孫。他的內閣官員雖然政治經驗不多,卻都是在商界和學界有豐富實作經驗的人士,是親力親為的實踐內閣。

五、 智利的奇蹟,除了有賢能的政府之外,也要歸功於制度。由於智利以前經過太多次地震,因此該國有非常嚴格的建築法規,建商會因為房舍耐震係數不夠而受損,而去坐牢。所以即便有20幾萬棟房子還是在這次大震中倒塌,大多數的房舍倖免於難。

就因這樣,雖然地震的級數比海地高出很多,他們受災的程度卻比海地輕微很多,僅525人罹難,而海地卻死了15萬。其次,該國規定銀行房貸必須要保地震險,因此96%的智利居民都有保地震險,因此損失也獲得保障。

六、 智利總統Sebastian Pinera是一個很堅定想把軟硬體重建到造福後世的人,他也只找跟他有同樣價值觀和使命感的人做閣員。但他是分層授權並監督執行情形的人,不會大權獨攬,也很聰明地邀請民間的非營利組織一起參與,因而加速了重建速度,也提升了效率。

Sunday, December 29, 2013

2014年的讀書計畫

年前因為一個偶然的機會,拜訪一位企業界的前輩,被他滿滿一書櫃的歷史和希臘羅馬時代古典文學與哲學的原文書所震撼。這個年代還有人看這些書?我脫離英文系大一念的西洋文學概論很久了呢,為什麼這位根本也不是學英國文學的老前輩還會為這些「老古董」著迷?這也是我很有興趣找到答案的一點。

或許,正是因為資訊氾濫,新書汗牛充棟,更容易讓我們錯過一些這輩子應該要讀,卻一直被新事物分心而錯過的經典好書。這輩子看過太多大風大浪的人,反而更加明白流行終究是短暫的,過不了多久就會被遺忘,因而更加懂得珍惜一些歷經數千年歷史的淘洗,卻仍純粹如金的智慧吧。

今年我想給自己這樣的挑戰,把一些早該好好精讀的經典,看完並且在此分享心得。畢竟這些書在人類歷史洪流中,有其不可抹滅的影響力,是不該忽略的。不過畢竟時間有限,還是侷限在與自己的工作較有關連的範疇進行選擇。以下是我的2014書單:

1.  孫子兵法
2.  國富論(The Wealth of Nations)
3.  物種起源(The Origin of Species)
4.  自由論(On Liberty)
5.  科學革命的結構(The Structure of Scientific Revolutions)
6.  風險社會(Risk Society)

我一直很好奇,為何《孫子兵法》會在西方社會引起注意與重視。一直到我在前一個工作,為了寫科技公司之間的專利鬥法,選擇用孫子兵法裡面的一些章節來解釋商戰的策略,才發現即便這本書寫在數千年以前,卻如此洞悉人性,到今日仍然準確。

善攻者,敵不知其所守;善守者,敵不知其所攻。

今天大家不斷在討論台灣的「悶」經濟,但過去十幾年,沒有投資在技術的創新,也沒有專注在困難的國際市場拓展上,卻想要和搶著簽訂自由貿易協定的國家,或是每年花GDP的三至五%在基礎研究和國際行銷的國家一樣坐收豐厚成果,簡直就是癡人說夢。

南韓在鴨子滑水努力於貿易談判時,我們在做什麼?日本與韓國大廠在研究東南亞市場行銷策略的時候,我們在做什麼?總覺得中國面板業者的技術不如我們,但產業鏈被取代時,才來驚覺人家進步的速度飛快嗎?我們不知其所守,不知其所攻,被打得落花流水,不是活該嗎?所以該好好讀讀孫子兵法,知恥雪恥,或許亡羊補牢,猶未晚矣。

很多相信政府應該多做一些事情,多提供一些福利給人民的人,或許總是把資本主義看作是洪水猛獸。但我很想挑戰這些人跟我一起把亞當史密斯的《國富論》看完。在還沒看完這本書以前,任何人都沒有資格完全否定它的價值。誰說資本主義就是只為1%的富人服務?亞當史密斯當年寫這本書時,想的卻是提升國家整體的富足與幸福。他花了很多的篇幅,企圖說明勞動應該獲得充裕的報酬(the liberal reward of labor),因為這不但有助於提升民間財富,也有助於人口的健康成長,更有助於產業的發展。是時候修正一下我們的偏見了。就算要爭取福利,也該了解羊毛出在羊身上,要求巧婦做無米之炊,是很不切實際的。

為什麼要讀《物種起源》?因為達爾文格物致知的認真研究態度太值得我們學習。或許這世界有太多人會認為,這本書就是真理,足以反駁基督教的創世論,但如果仔細閱讀,你會發現達爾文的態度卻是令人驚訝的謙遜。宇宙中有太多奧秘是渺小的人所無法完全理解的,我們只能從找到的證據去推論一些事情的演變。但即便是我們找到的,誰能說是完整的證據呢?追求真理,但不輕易否定任何可能,才有可能發覺一些人們連想都不想就忽略的重要事物,因而才有創新的可能。

彌爾頓的《自由論》,是闡說民主制度的重要著作。或許在無限上綱的要求個人自由與權利之前,需要了解到底完全無限制的自由真的是有益而無害嗎?如應有限制,那條紅線又該劃在哪裡?

《科學革命的結構》,是典範轉移(Paradigm Shift)這個片語的起源處。教育教給我們的,是過去的人所認定的和理解的運行定律,根基立在經驗之上。但如果只是把這些經驗奉為無可挑戰的神主牌,當世界在改變時,當典範在轉移時,遲鈍而拒絕承認的人,只有等著被遠遠拋在後面。這不是很值得現在閱讀嗎?

德國社會學家Ulrich Beck的《風險社會》,是我2006年寫碩士論文時大量引述的一本著作。看著每天發生的新聞,越來越覺得他當年眼中的德國社會,也就是今天台灣的寫照。或許在導讀這本書時,我可以輕易地找到非常多材料佐證。



這是個很有野心的讀書計畫?讓我們堅持下去,因為人生是需要沉澱的。在每天如火車轟隆隆快飛過去的喧囂中,我們需要一些可以定錨的信念,幫助我們免於迷失在眾說紛紜的無稽八卦中。

Saturday, April 02, 2011

沉溺在過去成功的風險

很多年前,英特爾的執行長葛洛夫(Andrew Grove)曾寫過一本書,名為Only the Paranoid Survive(惟偏執者得以生存)。這本書提到,做為一個市場的領先者,不但必須時時小心其他對手隨時會來爭奪自己的市占率,或是有新挑戰者出現顛覆整個遊戲規則,更要小心過於沉溺於過去的成功,以至於看不見由盛轉衰的轉折點,誤失了在那之前讓企業可以重新調整策略的良機。



宏碁歐洲區財務長杜哲明在接受媒體採訪時指出,義大利籍執行長蘭奇(Gianfranco Lanci)離職的主因是因為他堅持要繼續過去的策略,乘勝追擊打敗HP,成為筆電市場的最大製造商,但董事會認為,過去兩季未能達成財測目標,已經顯示蘭奇的成功方程式已經失效,必須正視平板電腦和智慧型手機已有取代小筆電的威脅,重新調整策略研發新產品,而非一味衝筆電市占。由於兩造一直無法就此達成共識,只好揮淚斬馬謖。


若是這樣,那麼宏碁董事會的確是看到了葛洛夫所看到的轉折點(inflection point),意識到必須要在大船航向永劫不復的瀑布之前,努力扭轉船頭,向安全方向航行。


掉轉方向後能否和過去一樣獨占鰲頭,當然無法打包票,因為那得看是否有足夠的人才和技術的領先,才能在新市場當中站穩腳跟。這也就是宏碁未來必須要努力的方向,而該公司也覺悟到未來擔任該公司執行長的人選必須是懂平板電腦和智慧手機的人。不管他們是否真能成功進行第三次的改造,能有這樣的先見之明,已經很不錯了,雖然還是比對手慢了半拍。


撇開企業不談,放在人生裡面看,其實過度沉溺於過去的成功模式和經驗也是很大的風險。世界運作的方式在變,人事物在變,雖然正直的價值觀不可有些許動搖,但卻不能不提防因過度自信和固執而造成的停滯不前。


太過成功的人,往往容易變得驕傲,認為自己的想法永遠正確,不容其他人的質疑與挑戰,即使是好意的提醒亦會被視為挑釁。位子坐得越高,越覺得了解自己的人太少,所謂「高處不勝寒」,有一部分是因為過度自負,對別人的意見不屑一顧所致。其實這樣的人也是偏執,只是過度偏執於自己永遠是正確的,或是偏執於其他人的問題,而非葛洛夫所說的,偏執於去找到自己是否還有什麼地方做得不夠和不夠好。


我們或許只是些凡夫俗子,但若能從別人的經驗裡學到寶貴的經驗,就等於是賺到了。我們沒有人家的成功,更沒本錢過度固執和沉溺過去經驗。慎之慎之!

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Salute to Mary Douglas -- Goodbye, Maestra!

Obituary Richard Fardon Friday May 18, 2007 The Guardian

Dame Mary DouglasBrilliant and prolific anthropologist famed for her social theories about cosmology, consumption and risk

Dame Mary Douglas, who has died aged 86, was the most widely read British social anthropologist of her generation. If she had to be recalled for a single achievement, it would be as the anthropologist who took the techniques of a particularly vibrant period of research into non-western societies and applied them to her own, western milieu. Within her lifetime, this was so far accepted within British anthropology as to become almost lost to view. Posterity should restore most of the credit to her, and remember her as an innovative social theorist and for her contributions particularly to the anthropological analysis of cosmology, consumption and the analysis of risk perception.

She was born in San Remo, Italy, the first child of Phyllis Twomey and Gilbert Tew. Her parents had stopped off en route to home leave from Burma, where her father served in the Indian civil service. Mary and her younger sister, Patricia, lived with their mother's parents in Totnes, Devon, until they were old enough to become boarders at the Sacred Heart Convent, in Roehampton, south-west London. After the early death of her mother, closely followed by that of the maternal grandfather to whom she was devoted, Mary found a sense of security in the relatively hierarchical, secluded and safe world of school. Her Catholic commitments and social preferences were set for life.

School was followed by wartime Oxford, where she read philosophy, politics and economics, and then by war service in the Colonial Office, where she met the social anthropologists. Intrigued by the subject, she returned to Oxford in 1946, initially to take a two-year conversion course, and then to register in 1949 for her doctorate in anthropology. The postwar re-establishment of the institute of social anthropology by Professor (later Sir) EE Evans-Pritchard was one of the major events in the development of the discipline; it educated an extraordinarily high proportion of Tew's generation, who went on to redefine the nature of contemporary anthropology. None, however, made a greater contribution to this than she did.

She undertook her fieldwork (1949-51 and 1953) in the Belgian Congo, now the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It eventuated in both a DPhil in 1952 and a monograph, The Lele of the Kasai, published in 1963. Her description of the matrilineal Lele, their gerontocracy, complex marriage arrangements and cults - most memorably that of the pangolin, or scaly ant eater - became a minor anthropological classic, but would not by itself be the reason for her fame. Civil war prevented further fieldwork, and Douglas did not return to the country, known from 1971 to 1997 as Zaire, until 1987. For all that she was a gifted field researcher and ethnographic writer, her wider renown was never based on her reputation as a fieldworker or on her ethnographic writings, although these established her competence within the profession.

In 1951, after a brief appointment at Oxford, she married James Douglas. Like her, he was a Catholic and had been born into a colonial family (in Simla, while his father served in the Indian army). James joined the Conservative party research department just as Mary took up an appointment at University College London (UCL), where she was to remain for a quarter of a century, and was professor of social anthropology from 1970 to 1977; a distinguished fellowship followed in 1994. If James was considered to be academic for a party official, and Mary unusually immersed in matters close to home for an anthropologist, an invitation to the Douglas dinner table soon dispelled any mystery.

In 1966, Douglas published her most celebrated work, Purity and Danger: an Analysis of Concepts of Pollution and Taboo. This book is best remembered for its stylish demonstration of the ways in which all schemes of classification produce anomalies: whether the pangolin for the Lele, or the God incarnate of Catholic theology. Some of this classificatory "matter out of place" - from humble house dust in her Highgate house to the abominations of Leviticus for the Hebrews - was polluting, but other breaches of routine classification had the capacity to renew the world symbolically.

In Natural Symbols (1970), Douglas began to answer the question that arose from this: what kinds of society are best able to support the complex symbolism that makes the best society possible? The book took exception to some 1960s cultural trends - notably the liturgical reforms of the Second Vatican Council and student revolts - and presented the first of many attempts to correlate features of institutional organisation with patterns of belief and morality. Her conclusion - that differentiated, hierarchical and bounded institutions provided the most condusive environments for complex thinking and symbolism - remained the same, whatever changes her theories underwent.

From 1977 until the mid-1980s the Douglases took up a variety of appointments in the United States. This period coincided with the publication of Mary's work most explicitly concerned with contemporary society. Her collaborative research on British consumers, The World of Goods (1979) with Baron Isherwood, was a pioneering work of the contemporary anthropology of consumption. In it, she argued both that contemporary consumption had ritual aspects that defined lifestyles, and that the increasing emphasis on individual consumption threatened a crisis in collective provision. If consumption was a form of communication, then those individuals who consumed less also communicated less.

While at the Russell Sage Foundation, New York (1977-81), with the late Aaron Wildavsky she co-authored Risk and Culture (1982), an analysis of risk perception and critique of alarmist environmental groupings that sparked a feeding frenzy among reviewers. At Northwestern University, Illinois, she occupied a chair jointly in anthropology and religious studies (1981-85, and then as professor emeritus), and published a string of articles on contemporary religion and social commitments.

On her return to Britain, back at UCL Douglas continued to publish a volume of her collected essays or a new book every few years, while being showered with professional honours and other recognitions, including a CBE in 1992 and a DBE this year. While a new generation of anthropologists might have forgotten how late this recognition came, Douglas, who had a particular fascination with the sociology of forgetting, did not. It was only in 1989 that, returned from the US, she was elected a fellow of the British Academy. Before her emigration, many in the anthropological establishment had considered her work marginal to the mainstream tradition, an indication in itself of how much the discipline changed during her career.
Two preoccupations were particularly apparent in Douglas's later work: refinement of her theoretical statements, notably in How Institutions Think (1986) and Missing Persons (1998), and a return to the analysis of the Old Testament that had been an important feature of Purity and Danger. This became the particular fascination of a trilogy that engaged her for two decades: 1993 saw the publication, after unusually protracted labours by the standards of Douglas's productivity, of In the Wilderness, a meditation on the literary construction and social context of the Book of Numbers; Leviticus as Literature followed in 1999, revising ideas about the Jewish dietary codes that Purity and Danger had made famous; and in 2004 Jacob's Tears completed the series, asking who had edited the Pentateuch, and how their aims might explain its textual form.

An invited lecture series allowed Douglas to collect her ideas about the poetics of ring composition, the technique in which texts are formed in circular patterns, in what she described as a summation: An Essay on Ring Composition appeared to her delight earlier this year. Aside from seeing her father's collected essays on fishing into print (they are promised soon), and hoping to collaborate with Congolese Lele scholars on a book using her 1950s photographs of material culture, she had completed all the work she felt she had in her.

Douglas's theoretical commitments to stability, loyalty and completion were evident in her own life: one marriage (from 1951 until James's death in 2004); one family home (from 1956 until she moved to a flat in Bloomsbury a year ago); leaving aside her American sojourn, half a century of service to UCL; and a lifetime of practising Catholicism. A similar singlemindedness was evident in her espousal and refinement of the theories she developed from her Oxford years, and her advocacy of the social policies that flowed from them.

As a colleague she could be intransigent in what she considered matters of principle, and she never dissembled her estimation of others. Her sense of humour was acute and in later years she enjoyed playing to her own reputation, gleefully recalling just how objectionable she had made herself to some American colleagues whose political correctness irked her, and accepting academic honours with mild irony, given what she recalled as her years in the wilderness. A wide circle of friends outside anthropology, and the like-minded within, will remember her capacity for encouragement and support of younger colleagues, an enthusiasm and curiosity that age only accentuated, and her boundless energy. She inveighed against exclusion; her hospitality was genuine and her home open to so many visitors that only the self-discipline of her work habits and her writing facility allowed her to achieve so much.

She is survived by her three children, Janet, James and Philip.

· Margaret Mary Douglas, anthropologist, born March 25 1921; died May 16 2007